The wait is over. Week 1 rolls out a feast of ranked tilts, blueblood showdowns and late‑night chaos, headlined by No. 1 Texas storming into The Shoe to battle No. 3 Ohio State on FOX. With fresh QB debuts (hello, Michigan’s Bryce Underwood and Florida’s DJ Lagway), injury notes (Kansas State RB Dylan Edwards questionable), and Vegas lines setting the tone, here’s how the weekend shapes up — and how I’m playing it.
Boise State at South Florida
Line: Boise State –6.5; TV: ESPN, Thu 5:30 ET. Broncos break in a co-starter backfield (RB Sire Gaines listed) and bring the steadier defense; USF’s speed tests Boise’s edges but third‑down stops tilt this.
Prediction: Boise State 34, South Florida 24
Ohio at Rutgers
Line: Rutgers -15.5; TV: BTN, Thu 6:00 ET. The Scarlet Knights’ front should overwhelm early; if Ohio can’t generate explosives, field position becomes a grind Rutgers wins comfortably.
Prediction: Rutgers 31, Ohio 10
Buffalo at Minnesota
Line: Minnesota -17.5; TV: FS1, Thu 8:00 ET. Gophers lean on the run game and a deep defensive line to choke drives; Bulls struggle on passing downs.
Prediction: Minnesota 34, Buffalo 13
Miami (OH) at Wisconsin
Line: Wisconsin -17.0; TV: BTN, Thu 9:00 ET. Fresh legs at RB (Dilin Jones listed as starter) plus Camp Randall vibes = long night for the RedHawks.
Prediction: Wisconsin 35, Miami (OH) 14
Western Michigan at Michigan State
Line: Michigan State -20.5; TV: FS1, Fri 7:00 ET. WMU plans to split QB reps (Broc Lowry among them), not ideal in a loud opener; Spartans’ tempo and edge rush roll.
Prediction: Michigan State 38, Western Michigan 14
Western Illinois at No. 12 Illinois
Line: —; TV: Peacock, Fri 7:30 ET. Too much size and speed for the Leathernecks; Illini rotate early and often.
Prediction: Illinois 52, Western Illinois 10
Auburn at Baylor
Line: Auburn –2.5; TV: FOX, Fri 8:00 ET. Tigers get good news with WR Eric Singleton Jr. expected to go and QB Jackson Arnold trending up in camp; Bears’ retooled offense is feisty at home, but Auburn’s pass rush steals a late possession.
Prediction: Auburn 27, Baylor 24
Central Michigan at San José State
Line: SJSU -11.5; TV: FS1, Fri 10:30 ET. Spartans’ run fits vs. CMU’s ground game are the hinge; home crowd helps SJSU pull away in the fourth.
Prediction: San José State 31, Central Michigan 17
Ball State at Purdue
Line: Purdue -18.5; TV: BTN, Sat 12:00 ET. Boilers’ vertical shots and a disruptive front seven create separation before halftime.
Prediction: Purdue 41, Ball State 17
Florida Atlantic at Maryland
Line: Maryland -14.5; TV: BTN, Sat 12:00 ET. Terps’ speed at WR stresses FAU’s corners; red‑zone finishing keeps it on the number.
Prediction: Maryland 34, FAU 20
Syracuse vs No. 24 Tennessee (Atlanta)
Line: Tennessee -13.5; TV: ABC, Sat 12:00 ET. Vols’ tempo vs. Orange secondary is the mismatch; neutral-site noise favors the deeper roster.
Prediction: Tennessee 31, Syracuse 17
No. 1 Texas at No. 3 Ohio State
Line: Ohio State –2.5; TV: FOX, Sat 12:00 ET. The Shoe. The stakes. The storylines — including Arch Manning’s NFL buzz swirling this week — all meet an OSU defense built for the big stage. Buckeyes’ trench edge and late takeaways edge a classic.
Prediction: Ohio State 27, Texas 23
Old Dominion at No. 20 Indiana
Line: Indiana -23.5; TV: FS1, Sat 2:30 ET. Hoosiers’ balance and special teams depth tilt the field; ODU struggles to match physicality for four quarters.
Prediction: Indiana 38, Old Dominion 14
Marshall at No. 5 Georgia
Line: Georgia -39.5; TV: ESPN, Sat 3:30 ET. Bulldogs’ front steamrolls; Marshall needs turnovers to hang and won’t find enough.
Prediction: Georgia 45, Marshall 7
No. 8 Alabama at Florida State
Line: Alabama -13.5; TV: ABC, Sat 3:30 ET. There’s noise around the Tide in the headlines, but between the lines Bama’s defense owns the day. FSU must hit explosives to threaten the upset.
Prediction: Alabama 34, Florida State 17
South Dakota at No. 22 Iowa State
Line: —; TV: FOX, Sat 3:30 ET. Cyclones come home from Dublin with juice; defense suffocates after the script.
Prediction: Iowa State 42, South Dakota 10
Nevada at No. 2 Penn State
Line: Penn State -44.5; TV: CBS, Sat 3:30 ET. Lions’ pass rush and tempo lead to avalanche sequences; backups cash late.
Prediction: Penn State 52, Nevada 3
Montana State at No. 7 Oregon
Line: —; TV: BTN, Sat 4:00 ET. Ducks’ track meet at Autzen overwhelms; chunk plays pile up.
Prediction: Oregon 48, Montana State 10
Albany at Iowa
Line: —; TV: FS1, Sat 6:00 ET. Hawkeyes’ defense sets up short fields; offense capitalizes enough to cruise.
Prediction: Iowa 31, Albany 3
Illinois State at No. 18 Oklahoma
Line: —; TV: SEC Network+, Sat 6:00 ET. Even without RB Jaydn Ott starting on the initial depth chart, Sooners don’t need to show much to dominate.
Prediction: Oklahoma 56, Illinois State 10
LIU at No. 15 Florida
Line: —; TV: SEC Network+, Sat 7:00 ET. Freshman DJ Lagway gets the nod — expect a simplified but explosive script to settle him in.
Prediction: Florida 49, LIU 7
UTSA at No. 19 Texas A&M
Line: Texas A&M -24.5; TV: ESPN, Sat 7:00 ET. RB Le’Veon Moss is “good to go,” which fuels a punishing Aggies ground game; Roadrunners scrap for a backdoor but fall short.
Prediction: Texas A&M 38, UTSA 20
North Dakota at No. 17 Kansas State
Line: —; TV: ESPN+, Sat 7:00 ET. After a headline‑filled week (Avery Johnson family incident apology; RB Dylan Edwards’ ankle to monitor), K‑State resets with a clean, businesslike win.
Prediction: Kansas State 45, North Dakota 13
Missouri State at USC
Line: USC -35.0; TV: BTN, Sat 7:30 ET. Trojans light it up early; defense pins ears back once the cushion arrives.
Prediction: USC 49, Missouri State 10
New Mexico at No. 14 Michigan
Line: Michigan -34.5; TV: NBC, Sat 7:30 ET. All eyes on five‑star freshman Bryce Underwood, named the starter this week — expect a controlled plan and plenty of help from a nasty defense.
Prediction: Michigan 45, New Mexico 10
No. 9 LSU at No. 4 Clemson
Line: Clemson -3.5; TV: ABC, Sat 7:30 ET. Death Valley at night, and a Tigers‑on‑Tigers chess match. Clemson’s defense gets the one late stop that matters.
Prediction: Clemson 27, LSU 24
Arkansas‑Pine Bluff at No. 23 Texas Tech
Line: —; TV: ESPN+, Sat 7:30 ET. Red Raiders empty the holster for a feel‑good opener in Lubbock.
Prediction: Texas Tech 55, Arkansas‑Pine Bluff 7
Georgia State at No. 21 Ole Miss
Line: Ole Miss -35.5; TV: SEC Network, Sat 7:45 ET. Lane’s offense hums out of the gate; Rebels’ ground game pads it late.
Prediction: Ole Miss 52, Georgia State 13
Texas A&M–Commerce at No. 16 SMU
Line: —; TV: ACC Network, Sat 9:00 ET. Mustangs’ tempo and perimeter speed are way too much; backups get work by the fourth.
Prediction: SMU 48, Texas A&M–Commerce 10
Northern Arizona at No. 11 Arizona State
Line: —; TV: ESPN+, Sat 10:00 ET. Sun Devils’ lines dominate; clean opener before the schedule stiffens.
Prediction: Arizona State 45, Northern Arizona 10
Utah at UCLA
Line: Utah -6.0; TV: FOX, Sat 11:00 ET. Utes’ defense travels, the run game closes; Bruins need chunk plays that won’t consistently be there.
Prediction: Utah 28, UCLA 20
Colorado State at Washington
Line: Washington -22.5; TV: BTN, Sat 11:00 ET. Huskies’ skill talent creates mismatches at will; CSU hangs for a half.
Prediction: Washington 37, Colorado State 13
Virginia Tech vs No. 13 South Carolina (Atlanta)
Line: South Carolina -7.5; TV: ESPN, Sun 3:00 ET. Gamecocks rally around tough news (assistant Travian Robertson hospitalized) and welcome RB Rahsul Faison’s eligibility. Balanced offense carries the day.
Prediction: South Carolina 30, Virginia Tech 20
No. 6 Notre Dame at No. 10 Miami (FL)
Line: Notre Dame –2.5; TV: ABC, Sun 7:30 ET. A rivalry wrapped in primetime shine. Irish defense squeezes the middle, and ND’s refreshed brand energy — yes, even a new logo drop — meets a composed road finish.
