NFL Preseason Week 1 Picks: Hot Game of the Week — Chiefs at Cardinals (Mahomes Alert)

Football is back and so is the sweat. Preseason Week 1 is where depth charts are made and betting edges hide in plain sight. Here’s a fast, informed run through every matchup, stacked against the latest Vegas numbers and peppered with newsy nuggets you need before you bet.

HOT GAME OF THE WEEK — Chiefs at Cardinals (Sat 8:00 ET)

Line: KC -2.5, Total: 39.5

Andy Reid said Patrick Mahomes will play the first quarter Saturday, which is rare juice for a preseason tilt. Kansas City may not have WR Rashee Rice (groin) and will be sorting snaps among young receivers, but Mahomes with even a couple series typically means points. Arizona’s young roster is intriguing, yet the Cards are still in audition mode.

Prediction: Chiefs win and cover (-2.5). Lean Over if KC’s starters get two full drives.

Browns at Panthers (Fri 7:00 ET, NFLN)

Line: CAR -6, Total: 33.5

Cleveland plans an extended look for Shedeur Sanders (roughly 50 snaps, per reports). That volume matters in August. Carolina’s home edge and defensive speed are real, but the number is hefty for a preseason favorite.

Prediction: Panthers win; Browns cover +6.

Lions at Falcons (Fri 7:00 ET)

Line: DET -3.5, Total: 33.5

Dan Campbell typically lets his twos and threes play with bite. Atlanta will keep things vanilla while sorting depth at key spots.

Prediction: Lions win and cover (-3.5).

Commanders at Patriots (Fri 7:30 ET)

Line: NE -6.5, Total: 36.5

Washington should be conservative with their top skill guys. New England’s defense travels—even in August—and the Pats tend to tackle better early.

Prediction: Patriots win; Washington sneaks inside the number (+6.5).

Giants at Bills (Sat 1:00 ET, NFLN)

Line: BUF -2.5, Total: 36.5

Josh Allen isn’t expected to suit up; RB James Cook has been in and out (contract-related) and WR Khalil Shakir’s ankle is a longer-view item. With Buffalo’s stars sitting, Big Blue’s QB room and back-end roster battles provide the edge.

Prediction: Giants upset; take NYG +2.5.

Texans at Vikings (Sat 4:00 ET, NFLN)

Line: MIN -3, Total: 37.5

Minnesota wants live reps for J.J. McCarthy (the talk of camp). Houston won’t show much with its core starters.

Prediction: Vikings win and cover (-3).

Steelers at Jaguars (Sat 7:00 ET)

Line: JAX -4.5, Total: 36.5

Jacksonville plans to play its starters, including Trevor Lawrence. Rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. is back at practice; there’s buzz about Travis Hunter moonlighting both ways. If the Jags’ ones get even a series or two, that’s the decider.

Prediction: Jaguars win and cover (-4.5).

Cowboys at Rams (Sat 7:00 ET)

Line: DAL -2.5, Total: 33.5

Matthew Stafford (back) is ramping for next week; Dallas TE Jake Ferguson (back contusion) is a watch item but depth at WR/TE looks game-ready. McVay keeps it basic in Week 1.

Prediction: Cowboys win and cover (-2.5).

Titans at Buccaneers (Sat 7:30 ET)

Line: TEN -3, Total: 32.5

Mike Vrabel teams are usually buttoned up early. Tampa will rotate heavily at QB and OL.

Prediction: Titans win and cover (-3).

Jets at Packers (Sat 8:00 ET, NFLN)

Line: GB -3, Total: 38.5

Jordan Love hinted at using his legs more this season. WR Jayden Reed (foot) has been eased, but Green Bay’s QB depth and home crowd at Lambeau are Week 1 preseason gold.

Prediction: Packers win and cover (-3).

Chiefs at Cardinals (Sat 8:00 ET)

Line: KC -2.5, Total: 39.5

See Hot Game above—Mahomes minutes = tilt.

Prediction: Chiefs -2.5.

Broncos at 49ers (Sat 8:30 ET)

Line: DEN -7, Total: 34.5

That’s a massive preseason spread. San Francisco may be light on WRs (Brandon Aiyuk remains on PUP and not expected for Week 1 of the regular season), but the Niners’ defensive depth keeps things tight.

Prediction: Broncos win; 49ers cover +7.

Dolphins at Bears (Sun 1:00 ET, NFLN)

Line: CHI -3, Total: 34.5

Tyreek Hill is dealing with an oblique; Chicago’s Caleb Williams isn’t scheduled to play. Even so, the Bears’ depth pieces have looked sharper in camp scripts.

Prediction: Bears win and cover (-3).

Saints at Chargers (Sun 4:05 ET, NFLN)

Line: NO -1, Total: 36.5

Rookie QB Tyler Shough reportedly took lots of first-team reps and looked sharp. L.A. is reeling from LT Rashawn Slater’s season-ending patellar injury and is also managing rookie WR Ladd McConkey (sidelined). Edge to the more stable side.

Prediction: Saints win and cover (-1).

Already Final — Quick Postmortems

• Colts 16 at Ravens 24 (Final): The Anthony Richardson scare (dislocated pinky; day-to-day) overshadowed a night where Baltimore beat the -6 spread and looked crisp with their depth.

• Bengals 27 at Eagles 34 (Final): Joe Burrow was razor sharp early (9/10, 123 yards, 2 TD), but Philly’s reserves flipped the script late. A.J. Brown sat (hamstring).

• Raiders 23 at Seahawks 23 (Final): August ties are back. Vegas sat key vets and sorted the RB room while Seattle evaluated QB depth.

Full Week 1 Schedule, Odds, Locations, Status

Note: Lines and totals reflect the latest board at publication. Player availability may change; monitor late scratches in the hours before kickoff.